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《績後》一文綜合大行對工行(01398.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
工商銀行(01398.HK)上周五(27日)收市後公布去年業績後,今日(30日)平日平開後反覆造好,現報6.73元上揚1.8%,成交額20.18億元。摩根大通發表報告表示,工行2025年第四季業績優於預期。期內淨利潤按年增長2%符合預期,主因淨息差按季擴張、手續費及非手續費收入強勁增長,以及資本狀況穩健。工行行長劉珺表示,如果符合投資者需求並有利於資本市場整...
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《績後》一文綜合大行對工行(01398.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
Recommend
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Positive
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工商銀行(01398.HK)  +0.020 (+0.292%)    Short selling $315.05M; Ratio 26.609%   上周五(27日)收市後公布去年業績後,今日(30日)平日平開後反覆造好,現報6.73元上揚1.8%,成交額20.18億元。摩根大通發表報告表示,工行2025年第四季業績優於預期。期內淨利潤按年增長2%符合預期,主因淨息差按季擴張、手續費及非手續費收入強勁增長,以及資本狀況穩健。工行行長劉珺表示,如果符合投資者需求並有利於資本市場整體發展,工行不排除提高股息派付比率的可能性。不過,在負面方面,雖然整體不良貸款率保持穩定,但零售不良貸款率在2025年下半年按半年上升23個基點,管理層則透露,零售資產質素惡化趨勢已有所放緩,整體資產質素將保持穩定,料市場對業績反應正面。該行維持工行「增持」評級,目標價7.35港元


工行上周五(27日)收市後公布截至去年12月底止全年業績,營業收入8,013.95億元人民幣(下同),按年升1.9%。純利3,685.62億元,按年升0.7%;每股盈利1元。末期息每股16.89分,對上財年同期派16.46分。全年派息每股31.03分,對上財年全年派30.8分。

期內,利息淨收入6,351.26億元,下降0.4%;非利息收入1,662.69億元,增長11.8%。受貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調、存款期限結構變動等因素影響,淨利息差和淨利息收益率分別為1.15%和1.28%,比上年分別下降8個基點和14個基點。營業費用2,468.74億元,增長1.9%,成本收入比29.48%。計提資產減值損失1,348.6億元,增長6.5%。所得稅費用536.69億元,下降2.2%。截至去年底,不良貸款3,990.13億元,增加195.55億元,不良貸款率1.31%,下降0.03個百分點。撥備覆蓋率213.6%,比上年末下降1.31個百分點;貸款撥備率2.79%,下降0.08個百分點。

【業績符預期 績後有支持】

華泰證券指,工商銀行去年歸母淨利潤、營業收入分別按年各升0.7%、升2.0%,增速較去年1至9月升0.4個百分點、-0.2個百分點。2025 年擬每股派息0.31元人民幣,年度現金分紅比例為31%。公司息差邊際企穩,資本實力雄厚,不良整體穩健,該行認為龍頭地位穩固,A/H股均維持「買入」評級。工行2025年末資本充足率、核心一級資本充足率分別為18.76%、13.57%,較9月末-0.09個百分點、持平,2025 年工行在全球系統重要性銀行(G-SIBs)中的組別升至第三組,核充率監管要求提升0.5個百分點,體現了國際社會對公司系統重要性及風控能力的認可。該行指公司龍頭地位穩固,應享受一定估值溢價,但考慮後續或有財政融資攤薄公司股息率,給予今年A股及H股目標價 各9.26元人民幣及8.29港元,均維持「買入」評級。

高盛表示,四大國有銀行(工行(01398.HK)  +0.020 (+0.292%)    Short selling $315.05M; Ratio 26.609%   、建行(00939.HK)  +0.020 (+0.238%)    Short selling $407.30M; Ratio 27.861%   、交行(03328.HK)  +0.080 (+1.136%)    Short selling $41.60M; Ratio 38.637%   、郵儲(01658.HK)  +0.020 (+0.407%)    Short selling $42.08M; Ratio 51.432%   2025年第四季度業績收入與利潤平均按年增長均為2%,符合該行預期。淨利息收入保持穩定,按年持平,主要得益於季度淨息差企穩,儘管貸款增速放緩至7%,反映零售貸款需求疲弱。非利息收入則顯著超出預期,按年增長9%,其中費用收入增長16%,主要來自財富管理、資產管理及託管業務;投資收益按年增長18%,建行投資收益更大幅上升69%,推測與債券處置相關。資本充足率按年改善,受益於資本補充,但資本使用效率仍有提升空間。股息派發率維持在30%,惟每股股息按年下降,主要受資本注入影響。整體而言,四大行在利息收入企穩與非利息業務增長的支持下,保持穩健表現,但零售資產質量與非房貸零售貸款的快速增長仍需關注。

高盛稱,四間內地銀行(工行、建行、交行(03328.HK)  +0.080 (+1.136%)    Short selling $41.60M; Ratio 38.637%   、郵儲(01658.HK)  +0.020 (+0.407%)    Short selling $42.08M; Ratio 51.432%   )在2025年第四季度維持股息派發率於30%,但由於資本補充導致每股盈利被稀釋,平均每股股息按年下降8%。展望未來,投資人關注的焦點將集中在五大方面:其一,淨息差(NIM)何時能在2026年企穩並觸底,其二,2026年貸款增長指引,特別是在零售需求持續疲弱的背景下;其三,資產質量走勢與撥備計提前景,以及非房貸零售貸款快速增長的原因與潛在風險評估;其四,非利息收入的展望,包括費用收入的增長動力與債券投資策略;其五,隨著收入與利潤壓力逐步緩解,2026年是否會考慮提高股息派發率,以改善2025年每股派息負增長的情況。
-------------------------------------------------

下表列出5間券商對工行(01398.HK)  +0.020 (+0.292%)    Short selling $315.05M; Ratio 26.609%   投資評級及目標價:

券商│評級│目標價(港元)
華泰証券│買入│8.31元->8.29元
花旗│買入│7.95元
瑞銀│買入│7.79元
摩根大通│增持│7.35元
高盛│中性│6.62元->6.27元

券商│觀點
華泰証券│不良貸款整體平穩,關注零售資產質素惡化風險
花旗│上季業績略遜預期,股息收益率具吸引力
瑞銀│業績整體穩健淨息差按季擴張,惟零售不良貸款仍持續上升
摩根大通│淨息差按季擴張、手續費及非手續費收入強勁增長及資本狀況穩健
高盛│上季業績符合預期,淨利差企穩,零售資產質素風險仍存
(ta/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-01 16:25.)

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