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大摩:市場對泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)「踩過龍」 以最悲觀情境計仍被低估20%
泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)今早(31日)高開0.87%,隨後倒跌,曾跌近5%低見141.3元。現報145.7元,跌2.02%,成交2,357.95萬股,涉資34.28億元。泡瑪股價於業績公布當中急瀉逾兩成,之後在回購下仍未止跌,暫時連跌第五日,低位計已較2月時高位回落超過四成。泡泡瑪特股價自高點腰斬,市場已按最壞情形定價。摩根士丹利亞洲消費板塊分析師Dus...
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大摩:市場對泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)「踩過龍」 以最悲觀情境計仍被低估20%
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Positive
21
Negative
18
 
 

泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)  +1.700 (+1.184%)    Short selling $902.20M; Ratio 16.119%   今早(31日)高開0.87%,隨後倒跌,曾跌近5%低見141.3元。現報145.7元,跌2.02%,成交2,357.95萬股,涉資34.28億元。

泡瑪股價於業績公布當中急瀉逾兩成,之後在回購下仍未止跌,暫時連跌第五日,低位計已較2月時高位回落超過四成。

泡泡瑪特股價自高點腰斬,市場已按最壞情形定價。摩根士丹利亞洲消費板塊分析師Dustin Wei表示,庫存上升、海外利潤率承壓、新業務爭議三個問題嚴重性或被高估:海外SG&A中40%至45%是隨銷售變動的變量成本,不會無限放大虧損,產品不存在過期或季節性清倉壓力;新業務裡真正值得跟蹤是主題樂園和今年將要首播的動畫短片。

在最新報告中直接點出,市場對泡泡瑪特的定價,是按照「海外業務在剛剛開始滲透的市場就已宣告失敗」來算的。他用分部估值(SoTP)驗算這個邏輯-而且刻意採用比市場更悲觀的假設,結論是每股價值約180元,對應當前股價仍有約20%的上行空間。

摩根士丹利SoTP的具體假設是:大中華區2026年銷售增長26%、淨利潤率34.5%(略低於2025年的35.1%),給予22倍市盈率;海外業務銷售額下滑30%、淨利潤下滑約60%、淨利率僅20%,給予7倍市盈率。集團整體對應銷售增長僅1%、盈利下滑12%,折合每股180元。連這麼算,也比現價高20%。(da/a)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-01 16:25.)

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