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《大行》高盛下調MSCI中國指數及滬深300指數目標價5%及4% 仍籲增持A股及H股
受油價衝擊影響,高盛早前將中國實質本地生產總值(GDP)增長預測下調20個基點。該行認為,雖然能源價格持續高企對中國經濟的直接影響較為可控,但溢出效應、美國利率更具粘性及美元更強勢等因素,或會對中國股市構成負面影響。該行估計環球不利因素將使中國股市的公允值下跌約5%,當中盈利受2個百分點影響,市盈率(PE)下跌3至4%。因此,該行將MSCI中國指數及滬深30...
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《大行》高盛下調MSCI中國指數及滬深300指數目標價5%及4% 仍籲增持A股及H股
Recommend
11
Positive
5
Negative
8
 
 

受油價衝擊影響,高盛早前將中國實質本地生產總值(GDP)增長預測下調20個基點。該行認為,雖然能源價格持續高企對中國經濟的直接影響較為可控,但溢出效應、美國利率更具粘性及美元更強勢等因素,或會對中國股市構成負面影響。

該行估計環球不利因素將使中國股市的公允值下跌約5%,當中盈利受2個百分點影響,市盈率(PE)下跌3至4%。因此,該行將MSCI中國指數及滬深300指數目標分別下調5%及4%,隱含12個月價格回報分別為24%及12%。

該行認為全面爆發的全球衰退或滯脹情境尚未完全反映在價格中,不過在亞太區(日本除外)市場中,高盛仍對A股及H股維持「增持」評級,因其風險回報狀況有利。該行建議投資者於目前價位建立策略性倉位,並重申對其中國精選AI投資組合及中國「十五五」規劃投資組合的策略性樂觀看法,該組合中包含大量來自AI電力及替代能源價值鏈的代表性股份。

高盛另降印度股指(Nifty 50)評級至「與市場同步」,菲律賓股指則降至「減持」。(ss/da)

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