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《績後》一文綜合券商對快手(01024.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
快手(01024.HK)昨收市公布去年業績後,今早捱沽,今早低開9.7%後沽壓增加,盤中曾低見45.66元一度下挫13.9%,最新報45.96元下挫13.4%。摩根士丹利指,快手預估今年經調整利潤介乎170億至175億元人民幣,意味按年跌15%至18%,與市場共識預期的雙位數增長相比存在顯著落差。受AI投資增加影響,資本支出將從去年149億元人民幣增至今年2...
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《績後》一文綜合券商對快手(01024.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
Recommend
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83
Negative
59
 
 

快手(01024.HK)  +1.080 (+2.394%)    Short selling $396.47M; Ratio 30.415%   昨收市公布去年業績後,今早捱沽,今早低開9.7%後沽壓增加,盤中曾低見45.66元一度下挫13.9%,最新報45.96元下挫13.4%。摩根士丹利指,快手預估今年經調整利潤介乎170億至175億元人民幣,意味按年跌15%至18%,與市場共識預期的雙位數增長相比存在顯著落差。受AI投資增加影響,資本支出將從去年149億元人民幣增至今年260億元人民幣。受資本支出增加及短劇貢獻擴大影響,毛利率將按年收窄2至2.5個百分點。快手亦預測今年收入增長放緩至4%至4.5%,其中線上銷售增長6%至6.5%、直播業務跌6.5%,其他服務增長15%,其中可靈AI收入將翻倍以上,電商業務以高單位數增長。該行指,儘管中國網路產業普遍存在AI投資增加現象,但總收入顯著放緩,尤其是線上銷售業務,令人對投資回報產生疑慮。該行指,管理層仍目標今年實現整體正自由現金流,致力於在絕對值上提升股東回報。該行下調快手2026年至2028年每股盈利預測下調17%至24%,目標價隨之下調25%至55元,維持「中性」評級。

快手昨日(26日)收市後公布去年第四季業績,季內利潤按年升32%至52.34億元人民幣,收入按年增長12%至395.68億元人民幣,高於本網綜合6間券商預測上限的389.91億元人民幣。非國際財務報告會計準則經調整淨利潤按年升16%至54.63億元人民幣,接近本網綜合6間券商預測上限的54.86億元人民幣。非國際財務報告會計準則經調整EBITDA按年升17%至80.37億元人民幣,高於本網綜合3間券商預測上限的78.9億元人民幣。集團於去年收入1,427.76億元人民幣,按年升12.5%。純利按年升21.4%至186.17億元人民幣,每股盈利4.35元人民幣。按非國際財務報告會計準則(non-IFRS)計經調整淨利潤為206.47億元人民幣,按年增長16.5%;經調整EBITDA升20.5%至298.39億元人民幣。

集團於去年收入1,427.76億人民幣,按年升12.5%。純利按年升21.4%至186.17億人民幣,每股盈利4.35元人民幣。按非國際財務報告會計準則(non-IFRS)計經調整淨利潤為206.47億元人民幣,按年增長16.5%;經調整EBITDA升20.5%至298.39億元人民幣。

【核心收入放緩 AI投資加碼】

花旗報告指,在近期流量支出政策影響下,快手平台毛交易總額(GMV)增長可能放緩;加上其對商家的流量支持,以及海外市場持續表現平淡,均可能拖累其廣告業績。隨著版本持續更新,可靈模型的強勁動能有望維持,預測該業務今年營收將達3億美元。但快手計劃今年資本支出提升至260億元人民幣,用於人工智能相關投資,可能顯著拖累利潤率表現。該行下調對快手今明兩年年盈利預測27%及30%,以反映最新收入增長前景及龐大AI投資,目標價由95元下調至72元。儘管龐大AI投資可能引發部分投資者擔憂,該行認為是捍衛可靈市場地位的必要之舉,且管理層對盈利表述可能略顯保守,存在上行空間。鑑於可靈模型具備不俗潛力,該行維持「買入」評級。該行估計快手今年淨利潤將按年跌17.2%至173.54億人民幣,估明年淨利潤回升9.9%至191.63億元人民幣,料2026年至2028年每股核心盈利各為3.881元、4.265元及4.555元人民幣。

野村認為,字節跳動Seedance 2.0模型目前僅限內地用戶使用,快手旗下可靈AI付費用戶多數位於海外,Seedance尚未在有關地區正式推出。為可靈提供寶貴契機,使其在Seedance拓展海外市場前有時間提升自身能力、豐富功能,從而鞏固用戶黏性。該行認為AI工具先發優勢不明顯,基於技術仍在快速進步,為後進者提供充足追趕甚至超越機會,以及用戶傾向追求當前最佳AI產品,對現有產品忠誠度較低。該行認為快手今年決定增加投資正確,即使犧牲部分利潤。該行預測可靈今年營收將翻倍至21億元人民幣,但下調今明兩年收入預測4%及6%,反映廣告增長放緩;非國際財務報告準則每股盈利預測下調28%及38%,反映收入疲軟及利潤率下降。鑑於盈利前景嚴峻,該行把快手投資評級從「買入」降至「中性」,目標價從77元下調至57元,

【同業新模型登頂帶來挑戰】

華鑫證券報告指,昆侖萬維(300418.SZ)  +2.200 (+4.490%)   旗下Skywork AI研發的SkyReels-V4 AI視頻大模型,本月第三方評測平台Artificial Analysis的文生視頻全球排行榜中登頂全球第一,超越OpenAISora2、GoogleVeo3.1等國際頂尖模型,成當前全球AI視頻生成能力最強的大模型。對比該模型預覽版上月在同平台拿下全球第二,正式版模型實現不到一個月內的排名躍升。該行指,SkyReels-V4目前能力已覆蓋短劇、影視、廣告、數字人等主流內容形態,統一生成接口可實現同一套基礎設施服務不同生產場景,無需為單獨需求搭建專屬技術棧。根據該榜單,快手可靈模型拿下全球第二,華鑫證券估算其標準版成本較SkyReels-V4高80%。

--------------------------------------------------------
本網最新綜合9間券商對其投資評級及目標價,全數券商下調目標價

券商│投資評級│目標價
富瑞│買入│106元->82元
美銀證券│買入│94元->77元
高盛│買入│87元->75元
中金│跑贏行業│88.8元->72.8元
花旗│買入│95元->72元
里昂│跑贏大市│85元->68元
中銀國際│買入│80元->60元
野村│買入->中性│77元->57元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│73元->55元

券商│觀點
富瑞│不同業務趨勢分化,可靈維持強勁增長動力
美銀證券│AI收入加速,成本同樣加速
高盛│高投資及廣告放緩為2026年盈利能力添壓
中金│AI商業化加速,年度派息顯回報決心
花旗│核心業務放緩,但可靈表現尚可,增加AI投資
里昂│可靈AI持續良好動力,但廣告服務收入增長放慢
中銀國際│加大人工智能投資和核心業務承壓將對今年盈利能力構成壓力
野村│可靈業務仍然健康,廣告業務放緩
摩根士丹利│展望負面令人意外
(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-01 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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