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《績後》一文綜合大行對中國平安(02318.HK)公布業績後投資評級、目標價及觀點
中國平安(02318.HK)昨日(26日)收市後公布去年業績,今日(27日)股價升近2%收59.3元。中金表示,中國平安去年業績基本符合預期,綜合金融模式優勢顯現,價值客戶按年升6%。產險成為強大獲客入口,過去三年向其他業務遷移客戶450萬。該行認為公司綜合金融發展值得期待,有望支撐股東長期穩健回報。該行又指,公司去年車險及非車險產業原保費分別按年升3.2%...
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《績後》一文綜合大行對中國平安(02318.HK)公布業績後投資評級、目標價及觀點
Recommend
58
Positive
70
Negative
46
 
 

中國平安(02318.HK)  +1.150 (+1.934%)    Short selling $745.92M; Ratio 38.430%   昨日(26日)收市後公布去年業績,今日(27日)股價升近2%收59.3元。中金表示,中國平安去年業績基本符合預期,綜合金融模式優勢顯現,價值客戶按年升6%。產險成為強大獲客入口,過去三年向其他業務遷移客戶450萬。該行認為公司綜合金融發展值得期待,有望支撐股東長期穩健回報。該行又指,公司去年車險及非車險產業原保費分別按年升3.2%及14.5%,綜合成本率分別按年減少2.3及上升0.1個百分點至95.8%及98.9%,其中新能源車險原保費按年升39%至525億元人民幣,且全年實現承保盈利,預計後續或成為車險主要增長驅動力。此外,按標準保費口徑的新業務價值率按年大幅改善5.8百分點至28.5%。代理人人均新業務價值按年升17.2%,產能持續提升;銀保渠道新業務價值按年增加1.38倍,多元渠道格局夯實。該行予中國平安「跑贏行業」評級及95元目標價。

公司公布去年營業額按年跌0.1%至11,403.24億元人民幣,純利按年升6.5%至1,347.78億元人民幣;每股盈利7.68元人民幣。派末期息1.75元人民幣,上年同期派1.62元人民幣。全年股息每股現金2.7元人民幣,按年增長5.9%;基於歸母營運利潤計算的現金分紅比例為36.4%。期内壽險及健康險業務新業務價值按年升29.3%至68.97億元人民幣,代理人渠道新業務價值按年升10.4%,人均新業務價值按年增長17.2%;銀保渠道新業務價值按年增長138%。銀保渠道、社區金融服務及其他等渠道對平安壽險新業務價值的貢獻佔比按年提升12.1個百分點。

平安產險業務實現原保險保費收入按年升6.6%至3,431.68億元人民幣;保險服務收入按年升3.3%至3,389.12億元人民幣。整體綜合成本率按年跌1.5個百分點至96.8%,主要因車險費用優化及保證保險扭虧為盈。車險綜合成本率按年跌2.3個百分點至95.8%。保險資金投資組合規模按年升13.2%至6.49萬億元人民幣;綜合投資收益率按年升0.5個百分點至6.3%;近10年平均淨投資收益率4.8%,近10年平均綜合投資收益率4.9%,超出內含價值長期投資回報假設。

【美銀預期中國平安CSM今年可望現正增長】

美銀證券指,中國平安的新業務合約服務邊際(CSM)及有效保單預期回報(流入)遠低於保單價值釋放(流出),其保單價值在2023至2024年間分別下降6%及5%。去年保單價值餘額僅下降1%,預期公司將報告更佳的新業務CSM增長,今年有望實現CSM正增長。該行指,穩定的CSM釋出是保險公司核心收入增長的關鍵支撐。該行又指,平安財險稅前經營溢利按年升13%。去年整體綜合成本率改善1.5個百分點至96.8%,保費按年增7%。但平安銀行淨利潤按年減4%,表現遜於預期。待淨息差收窄趨勢結束後,或需一至兩年時間才能見到增長長復甦。該行予中國平安「買入」評級,目標價74元。

高盛指,中國平安去年業績大致符合預期。去年第四季稅前經營溢利按年升35%,主要受資產管理業務虧損收窄及財險承保業績改善帶動。資產管理業務去年錄得淨虧損38億元人民幣,單計去年第四季虧損64億元人民幣。優於2024年第四季虧損96億元人民幣,但顯示該業務板塊資產質素仍面臨持續壓力。該行又指,公司壽險新業務價值按年升29%至369億元人民幣,低於該行及市場共識預期6%及3%。但這可能反映負面假設變動影響。該行認為中國平安實際新業務價值應與預期相符。此外,財產與意外險承保業績略高於預期,綜合成本率降至96.8%,優於該行及市場共識預測的97.3%及97.2%。該行予中國平安「買入」評級,目標價74元。

------------------------------------------------
本網最新綜合6間券商對其投資評級及目標價:

券商│投資評級│目標價
摩根士丹利│增持│95元
中金│跑贏行業│99.4元
花旗│買入│85.5元
美銀證券│買入│74元
高盛│買入│74元
里昂│跑贏大市│71元

券商│觀點
摩根士丹利│穩健增長符預期,進入去風險後尾階段
中金│業績符預期,綜合金融發展值得期待
花旗│新業務價值、淨利潤及派息大致符預期,成本率勝預期,資產管理淨虧損減少68%
美銀證券│業績穩健,合約服務邊際迎轉折點
高盛│盈利及派息符預期
里昂│稅後經營溢利及派息穩定

(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-01 16:25.)

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