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《績後》一文綜合大行對美團(03690.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
美團-W(03690.HK)昨日收市後公布去年業績,市場憧憬內地「反內捲」政策背景下外賣業務虧損迎來轉機,預期市場競爭高峰已過,今早股價低開0.6%後反覆回升,半日走高1.7%收88.15元,成交額62.41億元。高盛報告指,美團季度業績整體與盈警大致相符,投資者關注重點集中在各項新業務虧損及前景評論上,包括外賣業務季度持續表現優於同業,維持60%總交易額(...
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《績後》一文綜合大行對美團(03690.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
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美團-W(03690.HK)  -1.000 (-1.206%)    Short selling $1.22B; Ratio 25.681%   昨日收市後公布去年業績,市場憧憬內地「反內捲」政策背景下外賣業務虧損迎來轉機,預期市場競爭高峰已過,今早股價低開0.6%後反覆回升,半日走高1.7%收88.15元,成交額62.41億元。高盛報告指,美團季度業績整體與盈警大致相符,投資者關注重點集中在各項新業務虧損及前景評論上,包括外賣業務季度持續表現優於同業,維持60%總交易額(GTV)市佔率,每單虧損將於首季收窄,且受惠於騎手成本的季節性因素,第二季情況有望進一步改善;受Keeta進軍新市場啟動成本影響,季度新業務虧損略高於預期,但將於首季收窄;首季核心本地電商虧損可能按季減半,雖略高於市場共識預估的虧損水平,但顯示令人鼓舞復甦趨勢。該行維持對美團「買入」評級,目標價112元。該行指,在本地服務市場持續快速增長背景下,隨著即時電商總市場規模(TAM)擴大,對美團在整體本地服務領域的領導地位仍充滿信心。

公司公布去年盈轉虧蝕233.55億元人民幣,2024年同期賺358.07億元人民幣;每股虧損3.84元人民幣。非國際財務報告會計準則經調整虧損186.48億元人民幣,2024年同期經調整溢利437.72億元人民幣。非國際財務報告會計準則經調整EBITDA虧損137.83億元人民幣,2024年同期錄EBITDA盈利491.19億元人民幣。期內收入按年升8%至3,648.55億元人民幣,當中核心本地商業收入按年升4%至2,608億元人民幣,經營虧損69億元人民幣,2024年同期經營溢利524億元人民幣。公司上月發出盈警,預計去年虧損233億至243億元人民幣,核心本地商業虧損68億至70億元人民幣。

儘管受關停「美團優選」影響,新業務分部全年收入仍按年升19%至1,040億元人民幣。新業務分部經營虧損由2024年的73億元人民幣,增至2025年101億元人民幣,經營虧損率由8.3%按年擴大1.4個百分點至9.7%,主要由於對海外業務的投入增加,部分被改善食雜零售業務營運效率抵消。

單計去年第四季,美團收入按年升4%至920.96億元人民幣,盈轉虧蝕151.44億元人民幣,2024年同期賺62.22億元人民幣;非國際財務報告會計準則經調整虧損150.8億元人民幣,2024年同期溢利為98.49億元人民幣。非國際財務報告會計準則經調整EBITDA虧損140.25億元人民幣,2024年同期錄EBITDA盈利115.23億元。

【大摩:外賣單位經濟對比優勢擴大】

摩根士丹利預期,美團外賣業務首季虧損將收窄至84億元人民幣,估算2026年第一季度每單虧損收窄至1.3元人民幣,相比2025年第四季度每單虧損2元以及2025年第三季度的2.5元人民幣,其中平均客單價按季上升,主要受春節期間高客單價訂單比例提升所帶動。該行指美團至今已成功提升毛交易總額及訂單市佔率,在餐飲外賣領域整體市佔率60%,訂單金額30元人民幣以上訂單市佔則達70%。該行估計餐飲外賣業務單位經濟與阿里(09988.HK)  +3.700 (+3.109%)    Short selling $1.45B; Ratio 17.358%   差距已擴大至每單2元人民幣(此前為1至1.5元人民幣)。該行估計美團首季每單虧損1.3元人民幣,平均訂單金額按季增長。儘管美團未承諾具體收支平衡時間表,但鑑於季節性因素,預期第二季每單虧損將進一步改善。

大摩指隨著監管機構介入,該行認為市場競爭高峰已過,但後續虧損縮減的步調將取決於政府政策的進一步執行。到店業務受宏觀經濟疲軟及競爭影響,去年第四季經營溢利率進一步收窄至估計的25%。預期首季該部門毛交易總額將增長10%,經營收入按年減19%至41億元人民幣,經營溢利率按季持平。新業務季度虧損擴大主因是拓展新市場,預期首季虧損將收窄至27億元人民幣。該行下調對美團今年經調整EBITDA預測53%,反映核心本地業務經營溢利下降及海外投資增加,維持「增持」評級及120元目標價,相當預測今明兩年市盈率各17倍及14倍。大摩料美團2026年至2028年外賣業務每單各虧損0.2元、盈利1.05元及1.06元人民幣,科今年錄經調整虧損近22億人民幣,估計明年扭虧賺369.5億人民幣

【野村:阿里左右美團外賣業務復甦】

野村認為,內地當局不太可能透過規定企業可提供促銷補貼確切金額以直接干預企業營運,主要反對的是去年夏季所見的非理性競爭,即訴諸免費外賣優惠,以激進手段搶奪市佔。該行預期正常化且偶爾進行的補貼活動仍可能被允許。阿里(09988.HK)  +3.700 (+3.109%)    Short selling $1.45B; Ratio 17.358%   補貼預算將持續形影競爭格局,並影響美團外賣業務復甦步伐。該行指,美團預期首季核心本地商業收入將按年持平或輕微滅少,與去年第四季趨勢相若。但受惠於外賣及閃購虧損收窄,預期核心本地商業經營虧損將按季減逾半。就到店業務,管理層料今年第二季收入年增率將略低於10%,隨著公司縮減非核心領域投資,經營溢利率將穩定於約25%(mid-20s percentage)。酒店預訂業務已從競爭對手攜程(09961.HK)  +13.200 (+3.466%)    Short selling $75.00M; Ratio 10.599%   的持續反壟斷調查中受惠,未來將持續受惠。新業務方面,預計首季經營虧損按季收窄20億元人民幣,主要是消化與Keeta初次進軍新市場相關一次性前期投資。該行維持對美團「中性」評級,維持目標價107元。

本網最新綜合8間券商對美團投資評級及目標價:

券商│投資評級│目標價
里昂│跑贏大市│135元->120元
摩根士丹利│增持│120元
高盛│買入│112元
野村│中性│107元
美銀證券│中性│106元
花旗│中性│94元
大華繼顯│沽售│79元->74元
海通國際│中性│84元

券商│觀點
里昂│聚焦質素增長,將減慢收入增長但提振盈利
摩根士丹利│首季復甦跡象增加
高盛│季績大致符合盈警,料首季單位經濟改善
野村│首季虧損收窄,但全年能見度依然有限
美銀證券│季績符預期,核心本地商業首季虧損料因補貼壓力放緩收窄
花旗│去年第四季收入符預期,核心本地商業虧損100億人幣,新業務虧損擴至46億元人幣
大華繼顯│季度盈利遜預期,管理層料餐飲外賣首季虧損按季減半,能見度有限
海通國際│核心本地商業收入略遜預期,新業務收入略勝預期
(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-01 16:25.)

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