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《績後》一文綜合大行對中行(03988.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
中國銀行(03988.HK)今早逆市靠穩,最新升1%造4.94元成交額16.35億元。花旗發表報告表示,中行去稅前淨利按年增長2.2%;同期稅前營業利潤(PPOP)按年增長1.6%,均優於預期。上季PPOP加速增長,主要受惠於強勁的交易收益及其他收入,部分被較高的成本收入比所抵銷。上季稅前淨利按年增長5.3%,主要受較高信用成本拖累,部分被較低的有效稅率所抵...
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《績後》一文綜合大行對中行(03988.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
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中國銀行(03988.HK)  +0.040 (+0.805%)    Short selling $270.10M; Ratio 23.668%   今早逆市靠穩,最新升1%造4.94元成交額16.35億元。花旗發表報告表示,中行去稅前淨利按年增長2.2%;同期稅前營業利潤(PPOP)按年增長1.6%,均優於預期。上季PPOP加速增長,主要受惠於強勁的交易收益及其他收入,部分被較高的成本收入比所抵銷。上季稅前淨利按年增長5.3%,主要受較高信用成本拖累,部分被較低的有效稅率所抵銷。該行予中行「買入」評級,目標價5.92元,為行業中首選。

中行昨日(30日)公布截至去年12月底止全年業績,營業收入6,598.66億元人民幣,按年升4.3%。純利2,430.21億人民幣,按年升2.2%;每股盈利0.74元人民幣。末期息每股0.1169元人民幣,對上財年同期派0.1216元人民幣。連同中期已派發現金股利每股0.1094元人民幣,全年則派每股0.2263元人民幣。對上財年總派息股0.2424元人民幣。

年內,集團實現淨利息收入4,407.05億元人民幣,按年降1.83%。淨息差1.26%,按年下降14個基點。主要受境內人民幣貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調以及外幣市場利率下降等因素影響,生息資產平均收益率按年下降49個基點。非利息收入2,191.61億元人民幣,按年增加353.24億元人民幣,增長19.21%。非利息收入在營業收入中的佔比為33.21%,保持較高水平。期内,集團資產減值損失1,030.87億元人民幣,按年增加3.65億元人民幣,增長0.36%。其中,集團貸款減值損失1,071.85億元人民幣。去年底止,中行核心一級資本充足率、一級資本充足率及資本充足率分別12.53%、14.34%及18.85%。

【業績優預期 PPOP優預期】

花旗表示,中行去年第四季度業績超出該行預期,主要受益於強勁的撥備前利潤(PPOP)增長,去年第四季按年升7.8%,在大行中表現最佳;相比之下,建行(00939.HK)  +0.020 (+0.238%)    Short selling $407.30M; Ratio 27.861%   、交行(03328.HK)  +0.080 (+1.136%)    Short selling $41.60M; Ratio 38.637%   、工行(01398.HK)  +0.020 (+0.292%)    Short selling $315.05M; Ratio 26.609%   、郵儲(01658.HK)  +0.020 (+0.407%)    Short selling $42.08M; Ratio 51.432%   及農行(01288.HK)  +0.010 (+0.180%)    Short selling $227.90M; Ratio 54.697%   的PPOP增長分別為升5%、升3.9%、升3%、-1.1%及-5.3%。該行預期中行股價將對其穩健的上季業績作出積極反應。該行指中行海外業務ROE曾拖累整體盈利能力,但隨著海外 ROE回升,中行的ROE趨勢相較其他大行更具吸引力,且海外業務盈利貢獻擴大。

摩根大通指出,中行上季錄得收入按年增長9%兼盈利按年增長5%,均為國有大行中表現最強,收入及利潤分別較市場預期高出12%及1%。主要經營指標走勢優於預期,包括淨息差相對穩定、手續費收入溫和增長、資產質量穩定及不良貸款覆蓋率有所提升。在海外業務復甦下,不良貸款比率下降兼淨息差改善。該行予中行「增持」評級,目標價5.5元。

滙豐環球研究指,中行去年第四季度業績屬於中性至略偏正面,每股盈利及PPOP增長均超出預期。淨利息收入因資產增長而超過該行估算,非利息收入亦好於預期;房貸不良貸款率優於同業,不良貸款覆蓋率亦得到良好維持。該行維持中行H股評級為「買入」,並將目標價由5.5元上調至5.7元。

---------------------------------------------------

下表列出7間券商對中行(03988.HK)  +0.040 (+0.805%)    Short selling $270.10M; Ratio 23.668%   投資評級及目標價:

券商│評級│目標價(港元)
滙豐環球研究│買入│5.5元->5.7元
中金│跑贏行業│5.41元
花旗│買入│5.92元
瑞銀│買入│5.9元
摩根大通│增持│5.5元
美銀證券│中性│5元
高盛│買入│4.95元

券商│觀點
滙豐環球研究│盈利穩固及資產負債表具質素
花旗│去年淨利潤增長勝預期,內銀行業首選
瑞銀│上季業績表現穩健,收入增長優於預期
摩根大通│上季收入及盈利增長表現行業最強,淨息差改善
中金│收入增速超預期,國際化貢獻提升
美銀證券│因撥備較高,去年淨利潤略遜預期
高盛│撥備增加PPOP仍保持強勁,物業及非按揭零售貸款資產質素壓力持續
(ta/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-01 16:25.)

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